Over Under 2/2 – New York Mets/Washington Nationals
Generally, I shy away from starting pitchers to open the season because they could still be getting in the swing of things with limited pitches, but that won’t be the case for Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom. Both pitchers are expected to throw around 100 pitches today, which has been their M.O. since entering the MLB. Scherzer posted an elite 36.4% K% at home last season. Overall, he recorded a 12.6 K/9 in Washington. He was better against right-handed batters, and the New York Mets are utilizing a 4/4 lefty-righty split in their lineup today. On the other end, deGrom posted an elite 35% K% against right-handed batters last season. That bodes well for his strikeouts today, as seven of Washington’s nine batters will hit from the right side of the plate. Keep in mind, he has more than enough potential to strikeout left-handed batters, but his upside come against righties. While these two teams have strong offenses, there’s no reason to believe they’ll have an edge on two of the best pitchers in the MLB on Opening Day. As long as deGrom and Scherzer aren’t pulled early, which they shouldn’t be, as this game sets the tone for the season between two playoff hopefuls, they should each find 8+ strikeouts.
Play $50 on Max Scherzer OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Jacob deGrom OVER 7.5 strikeouts to win $114.50 (2.29x)
Home Run Derby – Los Angeles Angels/Oakland A’s
Let’s have some fun on Opening Day, right!? If you read my Stacks and Hidden Gems article, you know that I have Mike Trout and Justin Bour both in my HR Predictor. Mike Fiers ranks second on the slate with a ridiculous 1.7 HR/9, meaning Los Angeles could find multiple home runs in this game. Trout owns plenty of power against right-handed pitching, as he brings a 0.336 ISO and 0.65 slugging percentage against righties into this game. He also owns a 0.088 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, adding to his upside. Bour is in a similar spot, posting a 0.223 ISO and a 0.462 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching. He also owns a 0.152 ISO differential against righties. Trout and Bour are expected to hit second and third in the Los Angeles Angels offense, potentially giving them extra at-bats today. Trevor Cahill doesn’t allow many home runs, but I simply couldn’t avoid the power of Khris Davis when given a third option in this play. He owns a 0.309 ISO and a 0.562 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, while also boasting a 0.035 ISO differential against righties. Furthermore, Davis will see time against the Los Angeles bullpen today. Unfortunately, this game is being played in a pitcher friendly stadium, but attacking Fiers today makes plenty of sense.
Play $20 on Mike Trout, Justin Bour, and Khris Davis OVER 1.5 home runs to win $40 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
