MLB DFS (8/20/18) – Bobby’s Batter Up

•  This PREMIUM article features top offensive batters per position
• This includes value plays, upside plays, and contrarian plays
• Strategic game theory on why we are selecting these batters
• Advice on the best “Game Stacks” of the day
• The same players in these articles are the same players you can find in the core of our lineups!

Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB.  Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset.  Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team.  This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments.  It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up).  Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.

1. 1. Rangers (+170) –  I cannot disagree more with this implied vegas total for the Rangers.  3.6 runs against Mike Fiers? You have got to be kidding me.  Fiers comes into this game managing a 3.38 ERA with a LOB% over 83%.  That is extremely lucky/unsustainable and something that we shouldn’t take into account when judging his performances this season.  His FIP is a 4.54 which is extremely telling and his xFIP is even higher. He allows 1.52 HR/9 and is almost guaranteed to give up a home run (if not a few) in this start against a Rangers team that lives and dies by the home run.  Joey Gallo leads the pack for the Rangers against righties with a .263 ISO.  Although he is not the best hitter on the team in terms of wRC+ he is the best bet here for a home run given his power stroke.  He’s followed by Shin-Soo Choo who owns an impressive 152 wRC+/.400 wOBA/.937 OPS line.  After Choo, you want to look at getting exposure to Roughned Odor (127 wRC+/.364 wOBA/.230 ISO), Nomar Mazara (114 wRC+/.346 wOBA/.803 OPS), and Elvis Andrus who is a nice value batting 3rd under 4k on DK with a 105 wRC+/.332 wOBA line.  The Rangers will be extremely low-owned on this slate and have crazy high upside given this matchup with Fiers.  I can’t believe the ballpark will limit the Rangers as much to a 3.6 implied run total.  OVER in this game.

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Sin-Shoo Choo
            2. Best Bet for a home run: Joey Gallo
   2. Astros (-171) – I can’t believe how much the Astros are falling under the radar today.  I feel like this is another spot where the ballpark is really driving people off these plays and although it is a factor it is not the largest one.  Felix Hernandez is back from the bullpen and he really shouldn’t be.  His FIP is over 5 for the year, his xFIP is approaching that level, his SIERA is a 4.7, aHC% at 40%, and his SwStr% is at a career low.  He’s playing one of the best teams in the MLB and all these hitters are going to be fairly low-owned.  Eight Astros hitters have a wRC+ 100+ and we should expect to see around 5-6 of them in this lineup.  Alex Bregman, Tony Kemp, Max Stassi, Carlos Correa, and Marwin Gonzalez are the top plays here and I prefer them in that order.
      1. 1. 1. Favorite One-Off: Alex Bregman
            2. Best Bet for a home-run: Carlos Correa

 

 

 

Written By: @DF_Advantage 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared and issued by DFS Karma LLC for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however, we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. DFS Karma LLC is not responsible for any losses sustained. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department at DFS Karma LLC at the time of publication.