Welcome to another edition of Ben’s Building Blocks! In this article, I will outline the players I’m looking to build my main lineup around for today’s slate. If you want access to my core plays for every main slate, as well as one of the best discord communities in the industry, click here.
Pitcher
Brandon Woodruff- This is an absolutely loaded pitching slate, with tons of options available at all price tiers. The one that continues to stick out to me on DraftKings is Brandon Woodruff at home against the Chicago White Sox. Being at home was a big deal for Woodruff in 2019, his xFIP dropped from 3.99 on the road to 2.91 at home. He also saw his strikeout rate rise from 16.4% to over 29%. Furthermore, he’s been pretty dominant thus far in 2020. It’s tough to take any numbers away from just a few starts, but the 15% swinging strikes is something I love to see.
Now, this White Sox offense is legit. I like them a lot and I’ve full stacked them more than a few times this season. That doesn’t change the fact that they still strike out a lot, and I think Woodruff lines up really well against them. It appears that they struggle with heat, only one batter in the projected lineup sports an ISO above .200 against 95+ mph fastballs. Woodruff averages over 97 mph on his hitter. They also struggle to hit sliders, which has been his best pitch this season generating almost 50% whiffs with it. Overall, the matchup is risky when you factor in the power, but he feels $1,000 too cheap and I’m comfortable taking the risk on Tuesday night.
Andrew Heaney- I wrote up Heaney in this exact spot in his last start. Overall he had a pretty good start, but was sabotaged by Joe Maddon who pulled him at less than 70 pitches. The bullpen then allowed a run to score that he was on the hook for. I noted last week how good his curve is, and that the Mariners struggle mightily with the pitch. That will carry over tonight as well. If we had any confidence in how many pitches he will throw, he would be even higher-owned than he’s projected. My only concern is that the M’s just saw him, and sometimes early on in the season it’s an advantage for an offense to see a guy that they just saw a few games prior. This offense isn’t good enough for me to really care, and I think he’s playable in all formats again on Tuesday.
Jesus Luzardo- Luzardo should come in pretty chalky tonight, especially on FanDuel where he is priced at under $7,000. This is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and he would already be a frontline starter for the A’s if it wasn’t for his injury history. He has massive swing and miss ability, which lines up well against the Texas Rangers. This lineup projects for over a 24% strikeout rate vs left-handed pitchers between the last two seasons. This is also another team that struggles with sliders, which should help Luzardo tonight. It’s worth noting that Vegas respects this kid, as he’s listed as a decent favorite over Lance Lynn — being at home definitely aids that.
Building Blocks
Alex Bregman- I normally like to start with value here so that I can finish out my own lineups with studs. That being said, I simply can’t ignore Alex Bregman against Madison Bumgarner. I’ve been patiently waiting for Bum to get blown up this season, and hopefully tonight is the night against this loaded Astros offense. Simply put, this guy just isn’t good as he once was. He’s averaging just 87 mph on his fastball, and he’s allowed 50% fly balls to right-handed batters. Bregman is one of the better hitters in the MLB against southpaws, and I’m betting on the MadBum regression coming tonight in an offensive explosion for Houston.
Starlin Castro- I can’t believe it’s 2020 and Starling freaking Castro is a building block, yet here we are. I don’t think Steven Matz is a bad pitcher at all, but with Coors Field on the slate we are going to need some savings somewhere. Surprisingly, Castro owns the highest on the team against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Matz Achilles heel has always been power, allowing a near .200 ISO to righties in 2019. We also know that he’s a heavy sinker user — a pitch that Castro owns a .270 ISO against over the last three seasons.
Jo Adell (DK)- Many sharp analysts like to take a wait and see approach when it comes to top upcoming prospects. And the data definitely supports that theory. That being said, there are a few model-breaker type prospects — the Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto level guys that can have success right away. I don’t think Adell is anywhere near as “safe” as those two were, but this is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. His power is absolutely legit and he shouldn’t be $3,200 on DK even if he’s yet to see an MLB pitch. Hopefully people are fearful given he hasn’t played yet, I won’t be scared.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
